The Swing Voter Project, a collaboration between Sago and Engagious, continued through June 2022. This initiative gives swing voters — those who voted for Trump in 2016 and then for Biden in 2020 — the opportunity to share their viewpoints through monthly online focus groups.

Each respondent group comprises swing voters from the 10 most competitive states in the 2020 U.S. elections. In June 2022, the spotlight was on Arizona.

Understanding the Arizona Swing Voter Group

For this session, we invited 13 Trump-to-Biden swing voters from Maricopa County, Arizona to our panel. Our conversation with them brought to light unique insights relating to the January 6 Committee, inflation, gun control, and other pressing issues of this election cycle.
Let’s dive right into what may have been the most burning topic for this voter demographic:

Should Donald Trump be criminally prosecuted for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection and the days leading up to it?

Ten out of the 13 participants responded yes to this question. The sentiment of the affirmative group was clear-cut: a crime was committed, Trump was an instigator of said crime, and he is not above the law.

Speaking on behalf of the dissenting group, one respondent had this to say: “How can you prosecute someone […] who hasn’t been charged yet, a year-and-a-half later?”

As for the actual hearings, eight out of the 13 respondents were aware the January 6 Committee was holding primetime hearings; however, only five of 13 said they watched at least part of the first hearing that took place June 9.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway the group had from this initial hearing was how impressed they were by Vice Chair of the Committee Liz Cheney. Several of the respondents described Cheney as “brave,” “one of the few real Republicans left,” and even a good future presidential candidate.

What about Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s criticism of the January 6 Committee?

In his critique of the hearings, McCarthy recently offered his counter-proposal to hold a primetime hearing on what he views as a more important issue in America: out-of-control inflation.

Five of the 13 respondents shared they would like to see such a hearing take place, which our session moderator highlighted: “So, through his criticism of the January 6 Committee, McCarthy has a strong opening, potentially, to focus on an issue that matters to you.”

In fact, when presented with a list of 16 issue positions and then asked to choose their top three concerns when voting this year, more respondents selected inflation over any other option. To compare, inflation received nine tallies versus the four that gun violence received.

Speaking of which…

Have you heard about the framework for federal gun control that was recently passed?

Seven out of the 13 respondents answered affirmatively to the above question.

However, the sentiment around this bill was resoundingly pessimistic. Not one respondent felt the law, which is more geared toward mental healthcare than explicitly banning any weapons, would make a real difference in addressing the problems of gun violence in America.

Here’s what our participants had to say on the matter:

“Criminals will always find ways to get guns.”

“These gun laws will probably stop gun violence in a couple of generations, but not today and not tomorrow.”

“There’s no major law that will stop a criminal from going out there, buying a gun, (and) doing exactly what they’re going to do.”

Have you been following the upcoming (Aug. 2) Arizona Primaries?

Despite the money being spent, most respondents were unfamiliar with most of the candidates. Two of the GOP candidates, Blake Masters and Kari Lake, recently brought up claims that the 2020 elections were stolen.

Overall, our panel did not respond favorably to these claims. Respondents who spoke up seemed to share the sentiment that the story is old news and that it’s time to move on.